The question is no longer if Pacific Link gets built
‘The signal to the global capital markets is that Canada is open for business, and that we can build big things,’ says Patrick Bryden, Global Head of Research at the Scotia Growth Institute. / SCOTIABANK PHOTO
The proposed Pacific Link pipeline could send a powerful message to global investors that Canada is capable of building major infrastructure projects efficiently and responsibly, says Patrick Bryden, Global Head of Research at the Scotia Growth Institute.
“The signal to the global capital markets is that Canada is open for business, and that we can build big things, and we can do it effectively and responsibly,” Bryden said in an interview with The Hub's Alberta Bureau Chief Falice Chin on the Growth Lens podcast.
Bryden described the project's national interest designation as a “flashing green light,” reflecting both the accelerating approvals and the challenges that remain.
“There's now a high level of provincial and federal support that shifts the question from if the pipeline will be built to how, when, and at what cost it will be delivered,” he said.
The institute models three outcomes, with wide differences in cost and timing.
Its base-case has the project receive a conditions document by Sept. 1, 2027, a commercial framework finalized in the first half of 2028, and full construction starting that fall. At roughly five years and nine months of building, that puts the total cost at $44 billion and completion in 2034.
An optimistic scenario would see construction begin a year earlier and run about 18 months shorter, cutting the estimate by 20% to roughly $35 billion. The downside scenario puts the cost at $66 billion, with construction potentially stretching into 2037.
The government estimates the 1,200-kilometre pipeline will cost between $35 billion and $43 billion and be completed by 2032-33.
Scotia’s estimates also account for infrastructure beyond the pipeline itself, including a proposed export terminal at Roberts Bank in British Columbia, though Bryden acknowledged the precise split of costs between Pacific Link and broader port modernization remains undetermined.
He pointed to the Trans Mountain expansion, which ultimately cost roughly five times its original estimate, as a warning about the financial risks of large-scale energy projects. Labour shortages, extreme weather, logistical complications and environmental requirements could all drive costs up — pressures that could become particularly severe as several major projects enter construction simultaneously, he said.
The institute's broader analysis identifies approximately $350 billion in capital spending through 2045, peaking at roughly $40 billion annually around 2028 and 2029, with the largest developments overlapping between 2027 and 2031.
The looming labour-force crunch
“That means there'll be very significant demand for trades, materials, equipment,” Bryden said.
Competition for skilled labour could be hardest in Western Canada, where LNG facilities, pipeline construction and port upgrades draw on the same workforce.
“Project execution and inflationary pressures are going to be very, very real considerations, and it'll also open up further issues, so things like immigration policy,” Bryden said.
He argued that managing such a surge would still be a welcome problem. “There's no question that it's a can of worms, but I would argue that it's a good problem for the country to have,” he said.
How Indigenous communities participate financially is another major issue. Where previous pipelines relied heavily on mutual benefit agreements covering employment, training and infrastructure improvements, Bryden said the emerging approach emphasizes direct ownership. Pacific Link is expected to offer relevant Indigenous communities a minimum 10% stake.
“Indigenous relationships and considerations are completely vital to getting these kinds of projects built,” he said. “It's far better for any project proponent to go into those First Nations directly and over time and develop real and genuine and meaningful relationships in order to build lasting trust and partnership.”
Beyond construction costs, Pacific Link's financial viability will depend on securing long-term commitments from oil producers and establishing competitive shipping tolls, and determining who bears the cost of delays and overruns.
Bryden argued that Pacific Link could strengthen Canada's position in global energy markets by opening responsible access to customers outside North America.
“The world is still demanding oil and gas and hydrocarbons,” he said. “We went from a period of decarbonization optimism, and arguably over-optimism, to a period of energy realism. If you look at the G7, it's calling upon Canada specifically to see what it can do to increase its oil and gas production. It's a big industry. It creates a lot of jobs. It can create a lot of productivity and prosperity, and I think we can do that in a responsible manner.”
