**Prime Minister Mark Carney pictured with U.S. President Donald Trump. / GOVERNMENT OF CANADA PHOTO**

A year after Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president, Canadians are “sputtering in neutral,” caught in an anxious holding pattern as the Canada-U.S. trade relationship becomes more unpredictable and public confidence stagnates, says pollster Nik Nanos.

**Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist, Nanos Research**

“Literally, the week after Donald Trump was elected president last November, Canadians started to become a little more anxious about the future strength of the Canadian economy,” he told Means & Ways. “What we've seen at least in the last month or so, I'll call it a sputtering in neutral.”

That mood of waiting is beginning to shape economic behaviour, political dynamics and business planning across the country, he said. That emotional pause, he warned, is now a macroeconomic factor. If households delay large purchases, the economy can slow.

“Even though they can afford or need those things, they delay those purchases, and then the negative psychology actually transfers into a negative impact on the economy. That's what we have to really watch out for.”

That public unease mirrors what business leaders have been telling Ottawa for months: uncertainty is now the defining condition of North American trade.

Uncertainty is the new normal

Catherine Fortin LeFaivre, Senior Vice President, International Policy & Global Partnerships, at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, told Means & Ways “uncertainty is the new normal” but business priorities haven’t changed, and judging by what she hears from the business communities in the U.S. and Mexico, there is alignment on the need to make CUSMA “even stronger.”

“There is more that we can do to make North America even more competitive. So leaning into the things that might not have been covered in the last agreement, for instance, the digital chapter of CUSMA is pretty short, and so much has changed in that sector. There’s a lot more we can do in terms of cybersecurity alignment, in terms of AI policy, interoperability. There isn't a chapter on critical minerals.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney will be in Washington next week for events relating to the upcoming FIFA World Cup and expects to talk with Trump, but confirmed no date has been set to renew trade negotiations.

Canada-U.S. discussions on a new economic and security deal broke down last month over ads aired by Ontario that featured former U.S. president Ronald Regan criticizing tariffs. Carney has said Ottawa is willing to re-engage in negotiations when the Americans are ready to do so.

Independent Maine Senator Angus King told delegates at the Halifax International Security Forum on Nov. 22 the most troubling consequence of Trump’s tariffs on Canada is not the economic fallout but the way Canadians are beginning to view their southern neighbours.

While trade disputes are nothing new — “we’ve been fighting about softwood lumber for as long as I could remember” — the more serious concern is “the cultural break; the idea that Canadians don't think of Americans as their friends and neighbours, but as adversaries.”

King said the sentiment is especially painful for border states. “Being from a state where we have people going across the border to get a haircut … it’s a sad day. And if there was some point to it, that would be one thing. But there was no benefit to the United States imposing these ridiculous tariffs.”

‘They never got to it’

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis countered that Canada and the U.S. remain part of a broader democratic family, saying, “I know that if we were under threat, we would come to each others’ aid.” But he sharply criticized Canada’s defence spending, arguing Ottawa “still owes the military alliance more than $300 billion.” He added, “Every prime minister has said the same thing, ‘We’re going to get to it,’ and they never got to it.”

Former congresswoman Jane Harman noted Canada’s recent defence commitment, but Tillis dismissed it: “That’s lovely, but could we do a makeup for the 20 years of shortfall payments as well?”

Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer echoed King’s concern about a “cultural break,” saying, “There’s become a tension,” and that fewer Canadians are travelling south: “Those numbers are down because people are angry.”

Nanos said the polling confirms this. Canadians are “not feeling great about the U.S. There's a pretty overwhelming majority of Canadians who are boycotting U.S. goods and they're also avoiding traveling to the U.S. because that's the one thing that they could do to send a message to Americans about their displeasure with the uncertainty in our trade relationship,” he said.

Nanos said Trump may view that uncertainty as an opportunity to look strong. “Midterms are always tough for an incumbent president, but I think they're going to be exceptionally tough for Donald Trump, and I think he believes at least that the uncertainty in the Canada-U.S. relationship – his ability to punish Canada, take jobs from Canada, repatriate jobs in the automotive industry into the United States – I think he believes that's good domestic politics.”

TD Bank said in a recent report it expects the status quo on tariffs to continue. “There is a significant chance Canada sees some tariff reductions, but also a risk that [CUSMA] is altered to impose more quotas or higher costs on businesses relative to prior years. At the moment, tariff-free access to the United States hinges on firms ensuring content compliance” with CUSMA.

Roughly 85% of Canada’s July exports were compliant, however, total exports to the U.S. were down 9% compared to last year.

Highly uncertain operating environment

“The U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing the legality of the President's authority to impose tariffs under IEEPA,” TD said. “This law was applied to impose 35% tariffs on most non-USMCA Canadian goods (and 10% on energy). That ruling will not address duties as high as 50% on autos, steel, aluminum and lumber, which fall under separate legal authority. Even if the IEEPA tariffs are struck down by the courts, the President would likely turn to alternative legal avenues. The end result remains a highly uncertain business operating environment.”

Recent U.S. trade deals with other countries offer some guidance for how CUSMA negotiations could play out, TD said. There is generally a four-part structure. Typically, tariff rates are lowered from high “reciprocal” levels to about 10–15%; retaliatory tariffs and other export barriers are removed; product-specific Section 232 tariffs receive partial relief; and agreements include substantial investment commitments or large purchase deals for American goods.

‘Good likelihood’ of 2026 federal election

Looking ahead, Nanos said “there is a good likelihood” a federal election will happen in 2026, before the U.S. mid-term elections.

The Liberals will face a strategic choice, he said, whether “to defend a deal that will not be as good as the current arrangement or to ask for a mandate.”

He said he “would not be surprised” if negotiations “drag on in 2026” and the Liberals call a “free trade election” in the fall, seeking voter approval “to negotiate” rather than defending an inferior agreement. Nanos said the campaign would likely centre on “who can best interface with Donald Trump and who can manage that relationship.”

On the possibility of a federal election in 2026, Fortin LeFaivre said it is “certainly possible,” adding she hopes the government will “govern like there is a potential for an election” and engage Canadians meaningfully. She said ongoing political shifts and the influence of U.S. midterm elections will ensure “an interesting time for Canadian politics.”

Despite the tensions, Sen. Cramer expressed the desire to return to the previous relationship. "Our relationship with Canadians is very personal," he said. “The best way to fix this is to get back to the negotiating table and fix whatever it is that separates us on trade.... People in both countries are anxious to reunite.”