Fortune favours the bold: Experts on Canada’s biggest vulnerabilities and how to fix the economy
The last two years have been an economic stress test for Canada. From an ongoing trade war with our closest ally, facing a “rupture” in the global economic order and international security, and domestic political challenges on housing, affordability and immigration to name a few, it's not an understatement to say that Canadians and their businesses are worn down.
Through this volatile and turbulent time, families have faced stubborn inflation, rising mortgage costs, slowing growth and the quiet anxiety that comes when paycheques no longer stretch as far as they once did. Businesses, especially smaller ones, have wrestled with higher borrowing costs, labour shortages and uncertain demand caused by the on-again-off-again tariff saga that seemingly has no end in sight. Even as elbows were up and inflation eased, the economy remained weak.
Now, with Mark Carney’s new majority government, Canada has an opportunity to move from short-term politicking to action. A majority mandate, albeit a weak one, offers something the country has lacked: the political stability to make long-term decisions rather than short-term compromises. But opportunity means little without delivery. The government must move quickly to unlock productivity growth through investments in housing construction, skills training, clean energy, advanced manufacturing and technology. It must restore confidence that Canada can attract capital and compete globally. Most importantly, the “Team Canada” consensus across federal, provincial and territorial governments must continue to be the modus operandi to navigate what comes next.
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne will be tabling an economic update on April 28. It will provide a fuller picture of where Canada’s economy stands, but there should be no surprises.
As Prime Minister Carney said in his recent Forward Guidance video to Canadians: “Many of our former strengths, based on our close ties to America, have become our weaknesses, weaknesses that we must correct. Workers in our industries most affected by U.S. tariffs in autos and steel, in lumber are under threat. Businesses are holding back investments restrained by the pall of uncertainty that's hanging over all of us.”
For two years, Means & Ways has been at this intersection of business and politics and looking at the public policies that are shaping Canada’s economy and how they are affecting Canadians and businesses. Each week, we strive to bring unique perspectives and solutions to the challenges facing our country and amplify the stories and thought leadership that adds to the important public policy conversation. We couldn’t do it without our readers. Thank you for being part of this journey and being engaged on the issues that matter.
Carney noted that “in a crisis, fortune favours the bold.” Indeed, it does. To mark M&W’s second anniversary and as part of our mission to drive solutions-based discussion, we reached out to some of the country’s leading thinkers and business leaders for their takes on how to make Canada resilient during this fragile moment for the Canadian economy. We asked:
What is Canada’s single biggest vulnerability when it comes to the economy — and how do we fix it?
Combining opportunity with execution
CAROLYN A. WILKINS, VISITING SENIOR RESEARCH SCHOLAR, GRISWOLD CENTER FOR ECONOMIC POLICY STUDIES, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY
Canada’s biggest economic vulnerability is a deficit of dynamism and scale in a world that increasingly rewards both. Even before the geopolitical turmoil of the past two years, we have been underperforming on important fronts: living standards under pressure, weak business investment, and productivity growth that barely has a pulse. The deeper problem is that Canada struggles to commercialize good ideas and turn opportunity into sustained, large-scale investment.
Why? Long and uncertain permitting timelines, the risk that approvals may be revisited, and a shifting legal and regulatory environment reduce expected returns. There has been some progress, but interprovincial barriers continue to limit the ability of businesses to grow domestically. Meanwhile, capital flows to jurisdictions where decisions are made and hold.
You see this across the economy. Projects in energy, critical minerals, and infrastructure face long, shifting timelines and uncertain endpoints. Where projects intersect with Indigenous rights and interests, early and durable partnerships are not consistently in place to reduce the risk of delay and reversal. This is weighing on investment and entrepreneurship, with fewer firms created and fewer still scaling in Canada.
The good news is that the nature of scale has changed. Firms can grow globally with smaller teams, using technology and data, and AI is accelerating that shift. That plays to Canada’s strengths: deep human capital, natural resources, and broad access to global markets. We cannot allow uncertainty to undercut ambition before it becomes investment.
Countries that succeed combine opportunity with execution. Canada can be one of them.
Growth begins with people — their ideas, labour and willingness to take risks
GREG MCLEAN, CHAIR OF THE CONSERVATIVE LEADER’S ECONOMIC GROWTH COUNCIL AND CONSERVATIVE MP FOR CALGARY CENTRE, ALTA.
Canada’s single biggest economic vulnerability is that we have made it too hard to grow.
Growth begins with people — their ideas, labour and willingness to take risks — yet over the past decade Canada has layered on regulations, uncertainty, and a punitive tax environment that discourages investment and ambition. When productivity stalls, wages stagnate, public services strain, and affordability declines. That is the real vulnerability.
Fixing it requires refocusing policy on building an economy that works for people, not around them. Canadians want good jobs, rising incomes, and confidence that effort will be rewarded. That means a tax system that encourages work, saving, and investment — not one that treats success as something to be penalized. It also means modernizing regulations, so it protects the public interest without smothering innovation or delaying projects for years with no clear endpoints.
Canada also cannot ignore the central role of the rule of law in economic growth. Investors, entrepreneurs, and workers need confidence that contracts will be enforced, approvals will follow clear rules, and governments will not change the goalposts halfway through. Predictability is not a favour to business — it is a prerequisite for building anything at scale.
The path forward is straightforward, even if execution requires discipline: restore competitiveness, reduce unnecessary regulatory burdens, respect the rule of law, and empower Canadians to build, invest, and create. If we get that right, growth will follow — and with it, a stronger, more resilient economy for everyone.
Failure to fully integrate Indigenous jurisdiction and partnership
ERNIE DANIELS, PRESIDENT AND CEO, FIRST NATIONS FINANCE AUTHORITY
One of Canada’s biggest economic vulnerabilities is the gap between its resource‑driven economy and its failure to fully integrate Indigenous jurisdiction and partnership into the economy. The solution is to build major projects with Indigenous Nations and groups as co‑owners, co‑developers, and long‑term partners – this would unlock faster timelines, greater investor confidence, strong environmental outcomes, and a more secure and resilient national economy.
We need to control the controllable
DEREK NIGHBOR, PRESIDENT & CEO, FOREST PRODUCTS ASSOCIATION OF CANADA
“Made-in-Canada Barriers” have widened the gap between Canada and our global competitors. Our nation’s greatest economic vulnerability lies in persistent regulatory duplication and inefficiency, particularly in foundational industries like forestry.
The forest sector, a major economic engine, faces unprecedented challenges: trade pressures, weak markets, fibre shortages, rising costs, and persistent investment uncertainty. These pressures are felt most directly in hundreds of rural and remote communities throughout the country and the cumulative impact threatens jobs and long-term stability.
We need to control the controllable.
Overlapping federal and provincial rules, frequent interventions, and contradictory requirements drive away capital, chill strategic investment, and undermine competitiveness.
To fix this, Canada must signal its commitment to competitiveness with sustained action. Governments need to move rapidly from planning to implementation.
The first step the federal government can take to remove unnecessary hurdles and focus on regulatory efficiencies is to defer to robust provincial standards. Canada can strengthen its competitiveness, attract strategic investment, and protect jobs that rely on a stable, predictable business atmosphere while at the same time upholding our high environmental standards.
Forestry businesses and employees in our sector need governments to continue to focus on actions that will deliver real results on the ground.
Telecommunications central to closing productivity gap
ROBERT GHIZ, PRESIDENT & CEO OF THE CANADIAN TELECOMMUNICATIONS ASSOCIATION
Canada’s single biggest economic vulnerability is its persistent productivity gap—driven in part by lagging business investment and slower adoption of digital tools. The results are clear: slower economic growth, weaker wages, and declining competitiveness.
Telecommunications are central to closing that gap, underpinning innovation across sectors and creating new economic opportunities. From small firms adopting cloud and AI tools to manufacturers automating operations, advanced digital networks enable businesses to utilize new technologies, operate more efficiently, and compete globally. Sustained investment in telecommunications infrastructure delivers lasting benefits: boosting productivity through digital adoption, while improving service quality and driving competitive pricing as network operators compete for customers.
Yet warning signs are emerging. Capital investment in telecom infrastructure is declining, with forecasts pointing to continued pressure. This is not about ambition, but incentives. When policy treats telecommunications as essential in principle but fails to support the conditions for sustained investment, the result is predictable: investment in expanding and enhancing networks slows and telecommunications’ capacity to drive productivity gains across the economy is put at risk.
Policymakers often describe connectivity as critical national infrastructure, but policy does not always match that rhetoric. Canada must ensure its telecom policy framework reflects the essential role of telecommunications in economic growth. That means a stable, predictable environment that supports long-term investment through balanced policies that enable affordability, network building and innovation.
By realigning policy with the realities of investment, Canada can close its productivity gap and strengthen its economic foundation.
Our fiscal policy is not fit for purpose
HEATHER SCOFFIELD, CEO, THE CANADIAN TAX OBSERVATORY
Resilience is Canada’s biggest challenge in the unpredictable storm that is the global economy. We are building it in fits and starts, but what we really need is coherence.
Under pressure from erratic U.S. protectionism but also from decades of ignoring productivity solutions and a mounting concentration of wealth, Canada’s economy is barely inching along.
And the proceeds of that tepid growth are only half-heartedly being reinvested in a way that strengthens Canada’s population or positions us well for the future. Building and investing in defence and infrastructure is one thing, but bringing along the workforce is quite another.
Another gust of wind would topple us.
Resilience – the ability to withstand, or even flourish during economic shocks from within and without – comes from an all-encompassing strategy that doesn’t just fixate on government mitigating risks for capital projects. It comes from public and private sector focus on developing skills in every segment of the workforce, adopting the best technology, and enabling every opportunity for new ideas to thrive.
Our fiscal policy is not fit for purpose, tilted towards spending on defence and infrastructure while passively allowing private capital to sit idle and wealth to accumulate in the hands of the already-wealthy.
There’s no magic solution, but we could start with a concerted effort to align tax policy, government spending, corporate investment and workforce development with a Canada-centric vision that is inclusive, draws in young people, and shares the wealth.
Shift to real-time, autonomous operations, unifying IT and security
ADAM OSTOPOWICH, VICE PRESIDENT CANADA SALES, TANIUM
Canada’s single biggest economic vulnerability is its inability to move at the speed of AI. The pace of innovation is accelerating rapidly, with more advanced models and autonomous agents emerging almost weekly, and that momentum will not slow. As we have seen with developments like Mythos, breakthroughs can quickly reshape the landscape, and bad actors will inevitably gain access to these same capabilities.
Yet many organizations, and governments in particular, are still operating with fragmented data, delayed insights, and legacy processes that cannot keep up. Without real-time visibility and control, they are making decisions too slowly and reacting too late.
The solution is a shift to real-time, autonomous operations, unifying IT and security, delivering trusted data at scale, and enabling instant action. For government, this also means accelerating procurement and aligning to enterprise speed and scale. If Canada closes this gap, we can strengthen resilience, unlock productivity, and compete more effectively in an AI-driven economy.
We cannot let this moment go to waste
ALEX CIAPPARA, VP AND HEAD ECONOMIST, CANADIAN BANKERS ASSOCIATION
The single biggest vulnerability for the Canadian economy is complacency. We cannot let this moment go to waste. Canada’s productivity and standard of living have been declining while affordability concerns have increased. On productivity, Canada has been falling behind its peers ranking second last among G7 countries. While Canadians have seen their housing, grocery costs and other every day expenses increase. Since the pandemic, technological change and geopolitical risk have accelerated and shown that this is a path that we can no longer collectively afford to take. Unless we address these issues, Canadians risk wage stagnation, pressure on public services such as health and education, higher production costs, higher affordability challenges and diminished global competitiveness.
Fortunately, Canadians are increasingly recognizing the urgency with which we must take action. They support efforts to remove trade barriers within Canada, expand markets outside of the country, and invest in defending our sovereignty. They will support bold decisions and big calls that will address concerns around productivity, standard of living and affordability. Policymakers and businesses must meet the moment and provide the leadership Canadians want and crave. That means putting aside narrow self-interest and partisan differences and acting on behalf of the entire country.
Brace for impact. This is going to hurt.
KEVIN PAGE, PRESIDENT AND CEO, INSTITUTE OF FISCAL STUDIES AND DEMOCRACY
The single biggest vulnerability when it comes to the Canadian economy is the rupture in relations with the U.S. While U.S. President Trump’s America First policies have global consequences for trade, security, environment and international relations, Canada is on the front line of the rupture. It would be hard to find a small open economy more integrated with a large economy, than Canada. Message: brace for impact. This is going to hurt.
Canada has the tools, experience and policy room to address short-term vulnerabilities like oil price shocks. Shocks will destabilize the economy. We have recently experienced a global financial crisis and health pandemic. The responses are complicated, leave scars, and take up valuable policy space. Nonetheless, the Canadian economy rebounded with support of monetary and fiscal policies.
The rupture in relations with the U.S. and its long-term impacts on Canadian prosperity and national security is an existential risk. It is structural, not cyclical. We need new policies, plans and investments. We need leadership in the public and private sectors that understands the moment and is prepared to work together. Good news is that Canadians largely understand that change is required according to public polling.
Canadians and our political and business leaders need to prepare for a marathon, not a sprint. The federal government’s Canada Strong plan is in its early stages of formulation. Structural problems — regarding trade, productivity, national security — need structural solutions. We need risk takers, consensus builders, collaborative efforts and long-term policy commitments.
Unlocking women’s full economic participation
JULIE SAVARD-SHAW, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, THE PROSPERITY PROJECT
Canada’s single biggest economic vulnerability is hiding in plain sight: we are systematically underutilizing the talent of half our population.
At a time when Canada faces persistent labour shortages and productivity challenges, the underrepresentation of women across the workforce — particularly in leadership — is a structural economic risk.
The persistent barriers are widely known. Wage gaps, disproportionate caregiving responsibilities, limited access to high-growth sectors, and the cost of childcare continue to shape women’s full participation in the workforce.
But participation is only part of the problem. Retention and advancement are where the system breaks down. The Prosperity Project’s 2025 Annual Report Card highlights this clearly: the share of women in the pipeline to senior management has fallen from 54.5% in 2022 to 45.3% in 2025. That is a step backward, and it has a direct implication for Canada’s long-term growth.
The business case is unambiguous. Organizations with women at the decision-making table consistently outperform, with stronger innovation and better strategic outcomes.
The cost of inaction is significant.
Estimates suggest that advancing women’s equality could add up to $150 billion to Canada’s GDP. Without progress, the country continues to leave growth, productivity, and competitiveness on the table.
Canada has the talent. What’s missing is consistent, coordinated action. Unlocking women’s full economic participation requires alignment across policy, business, and leadership to address the structural barriers that shape participation and advancement — and to treat this as a measure of economic policy.
Closing gap between those with financial security and those at the bottom
JENNIFER ROBSON, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR AND PROGRAM DIRECTOR, GRADUATE PROGRAM IN POLITICAL MANAGEMENT, CARLETON UNIVERSITY
The single biggest vulnerability in the Canadian economy is the widening gap between those with financial security and those at the bottom. On objective measures like household wealth, particularly financial assets, earnings, savings, and exposure to inflationary pressures, we are seeing a persistent split between households at the bottom and top of the distribution.
But that split is also increasingly showing up in subjective measures like inflation expectations and consumer confidence, meaning that lower income consumers are internalizing the idea that good economic news or policy, when it comes, isn’t for them. At a moment when “build” and “buy Canadian” are imperatives to our survival as an independent nation, it’s very dangerous to leave out a share of our fellow citizens. We’ve seen what that leads to in other advanced democracies. We can’t afford that.
We fix it by making deliberate choices to use policy instruments that “build” in ways that share the benefits of greater domestic investment and ownership, and a tax system that doesn’t just direct incentives towards the already comfortable and well-off.
Securing investment and policy support to ensure we innovate ahead of key partners
DR. GEOFF MCCARNEY, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, SMART PROSPERITY INSTITUTE
As a small, open, trading economy, Canada faces pressures to respond to the economic and industrial policy decisions of our major trading partners. As these partners take increasingly divergent approaches to today’s major economic disruptions and transitions (such as AI and decarbonization), Canada risks being left behind. We risk being caught in a reactive posture, trying to maintain our current position in existing value chains, and unable to adjust quickly enough as these larger trading partners pivot and re-position themselves more quickly than we can respond to. While being pragmatic about the need to remain competitive in the current global economy, Canada must at the same time maintain a longer term strategic vision, and secure the investment and policy support to ensure we innovate ahead of key partners to secure our own niches in future value chains while developing and attracting talent to key sectors in the future digital, AI-integrated, and low carbon economy.”
Unlocking investment and getting projects to final investment decisions
JAY KHOSLA, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, ECONOMIC AND ENERGY POLICY, PUBLIC POLICY FORUM
This crucial moment for Canada is beset by daunting challenges, but also ripe with enormous opportunity. In addition to the immediate threat of a hostile turn toward tariffs and threats of annexation by its primary trading partner, Canada faces significant long-term challenges, including the need to expand energy production and develop critical minerals to meet growing domestic and global demand, decarbonize its energy system to fulfill international climate commitments, address declining productivity, and strengthen its overall growth trajectory. At the same time, shifts in the global energy mix and the dramatic reconfiguration of the economic and geopolitical order provide a rare chance for Canada to scale up its own ambitions, harness its abundant natural resources, and get its economic house in much better order — tasks that are long overdue. Investment is key to unlocking our future and focusing on “final investment decisions” (FID) will get the job done. PPF has proposed a policy framework to do so:
Unlocking Investment and Getting Projects to FID
Co-ordinated financing: How can we better align public and private funding sources to support projects and close investment gaps?
Efficient and effective regulations: What do we need to do to the regulatory and permitting regime to get projects through the process quicker?
Enabling critical infrastructure: How can we take a systems-level approach to planning to ensure that foundational infrastructure and skilled labour are in place to support the building of major projects?
Increasing Indigenous economic participation: How can we strengthen partnerships between project proponents, government institutions and Indigenous rights-holders to support meaningful Indigenous involvement in major projects?
Feeding Canadians is a matter of sovereignty
KYLE LARKIN, PRESIDENT & CEO, CANADIAN MEAT COUNCIL
Due to the ease of access, Canadians often overlook one of the most fundamental pieces to our national sovereignty: the ability to feed our population. Food security, especially in today’s geopolitical world, is paramount. It underpins productivity, economic activity, and social stability — people need to eat before they can work or spend. In my view, Canada’s greatest vulnerability is treating food as just another weekly expense, rather than recognizing it as a strategic, nation-building asset.
The Canadian agriculture and agri-food sector accounts for 1 in 9 jobs, and 7% of Canada’s GDP. It contributes more to the economy than the automotive, aerospace and steel sectors combined. Canada is also the world’s fifth-largest exporter of agricultural and agri-food products. This sector is a powerhouse — feeding not just our families but also driving our productivity and underpinning our broader economy.
Meat processing is one of Canada’s largest manufacturing employers, generating $43.8 billion in sales — about 25% of all Canadian food processing — and supports more than 300,000 direct and indirect jobs across the country. In the beef sector alone, each job creates another 3.9 jobs elsewhere, and every $1 of income generates $6.22 in broader economic activity.
We need to move beyond the “agriculture” label and treat this sector with the same urgency as other nation-building industries — giving it “major project” status and prioritizing value-added production at home.
Feeding Canadians is a matter of sovereignty. Investing in domestic processing keeps high-paying jobs and profits at home — and creates a more resilient economy while strengthening its foundation.
We need to unlock capital for businesses of all sizes
BRIAN GALLANT CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, SPACE CANADA
Canada’s biggest economic vulnerability over the last two years is the uncertainty in our trading relationship with the United States. As our largest trading partner, even small shifts can have outsized impacts on Canada’s economy.
We can’t control U.S. policy; we can control our own economic fundamentals. That’s where the real opportunity lies.
Productivity is the economic metric Canada should be most focused on improving. It is the clearest driver of long-term living standards for Canadians — and right now, we are falling behind. The OECD projects Canada risks ranking near the bottom of advanced economies in productivity growth over the coming decades.
Another challenge to it all: any increase to productivity must simultaneously help Canada build a more equitable, inclusive, and sustainable economy.
We need to unlock capital for businesses of all sizes. We must invest in infrastructure that strengthens supply chains and connectivity. Businesses must accelerate technology adoption and universities need to help us better connect research to commercialization, including stronger protection and use of intellectual property. Canada must also be deliberate in developing emerging sectors like space, cyber, quantum, and AI.
At the same time, productivity depends on people. Investments in education, training, childcare, housing, and healthcare are economic policy. Finally, strengthening tax and regulatory frameworks, reducing internal trade barriers, and diversifying Canada’s export markets will help us compete globally.
Passing on a productive, more equitable, and sustainable economy to the next generation should be a collective goal for us all.
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