2026: The ‘neverendum’ cometh?
With the Parti Québécois in the lead in provincial polls, ‘You can count on a Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon to try to pick as many fights as possible with the federal government to start gathering the “winning conditions” needed to pull the trigger on another referendum,’ writes Ken Polk. / PQ PHOTO
The retro-mercantilism of President Donald Trump has defined Canada’s 2025, with economic, fiscal and political consequences that seemed unimaginable just 12 months ago – just ask Pierre Poilievre.
However, looking ahead to 2026, Canada may be on the verge of adding our own unique brand of uncertainty to the mix, with what appears to be the almost certain election in Quebec of a Parti Québécois (PQ) government under its leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) government, led by Premier François Legault, appears to be doomed. The CAQ fell behind the PQ in Quebec party preference in late 2023 and has been flirting with fourth place in the polls for much of this year. Much like former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, nothing the premier tries to spark a political comeback has worked.
The Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) has been firmly in second place. Still, the eruption of corruption allegations against former party leader Pablo Rodriguez means that the party may spend most of 2026 under investigation by Quebec’s anti-corruption police; not a good political look.
So, it seems the “neverendum” is set to return to Quebec and the Canadian political stage late next year. The term was coined by Quebec columnist Josh Freed to describe what he saw as the PQ’s apparent fixation with holding a never-ending series of sovereignty referendums until they finally win one.
From its founding by René Lévesque in 1968, Article 1 of the PQ political program states that the party's primary objective is to lead the people of Quebec to complete freedom through independence and the foundation of the Republic of Quebec. Almost 40 years later, separation, sovereignty, sovereignty association or independence, whatever your term of choice, remains Article 1 of the PQ program. And the party has won five elections since its founding with Article 1 in place.
The uncertainty stoked by the prospect of Quebec separation was a drag on Canada’s economy from the mid-1970s through the mid-1990s. It discouraged investment, encouraged capital and business flight from Quebec, and raised investment and borrowing risk premiums for the province and the country.
Sovereignty is a PQ litmus test and a political millstone
The latest polls peg support for sovereignty at around 35%. This appears to be the solid foundation of support among Quebecers for the various options that have been proposed over the years. And while it peaked at just under 50% in the 1995 referendum, sovereignty has never been a winner.
In fact, since the 1995 referendum, it has been a political millstone for the PQ. Lucien Bouchard, the passionate campaigner who came tantalizingly close to winning in 1995, won a majority government just three years later but actually received fewer votes than the Liberals under Jean Charest, who became premier in 2003. Pauline Marois was held to a short-lived minority government in part because voters were fed up with the PQ’s obsession with sovereignty at the expense of the economy and health care.
With this record, one may wonder why the party has not abandoned Article 1. Indeed, Legault swept to power in 2018 because the CAQ offered rock-ribbed Quebec nationalism, minus the sovereignty. Bouchard publicly advised Plamondon to ditch Article 1 or risk defeat next year.
Yet Article 1 endures. Because like every other party, federal or provincial, it is the base of the PQ — the hard core of sovereignty supporters — who elect PQ party leaders. For them, support for Article 1 is a litmus test that Plamandon passed in 2020 followed by a pledge to hold another referendum by 2030 if elected.
Quebec voters are not phased by Article 1
Of course, federal political observers were taught, again, that there are never any sure things in politics. The PQ may not win, or it may be held to a minority. Plamondon may simply run a bad campaign. It may be because voters continue to have an aversion to re-fighting constitutional battles whose best-before date has long passed. Or it may be something as uncomplicated as the feeling that Trump is a much bigger threat to Quebec than Canadian federalism.
Even so, the PQ is a good bet to win. Quebecers have been quite happy to elect PQ governments in the past, despite Article 1. They know the difference between a sovereignty referendum and a provincial election. One of these things is not like the other, and, like most voters, they are sophisticated enough to do one political thing and then the next one.
Whatever the reasons for a PQ win next October, the neverendum will be upon us again. You can count on a Premier Plamondon to try to pick as many fights as possible with the federal government to start gathering the “winning conditions” needed to pull the trigger on another referendum. He may accuse Quebec of appeasing President Trump. He may argue that the rest of Canada is addicted to fossil fuels, while Quebec is following a distinct road toward becoming a clean energy superpower on its own.
For its part, Ottawa cannot take this threat lightly. Sovereignty has always gained ground during both referendums to date. We also won't have a Trudeau or a Chrétien to lead the fight. And, as former U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron learned to his eternal regret, an emotional referendum, such as Brexit, can yield bitter results. As someone who lived through the 1995 referendum in the PMO, I assure you they can take a hair-raising turn.
One thing is clear. The next edition of the neverendum will again spook investors and lenders, and once again cost all Canadians.
