Donald Trump may still be telling Americans that foreigners carry the cost of U.S. tariffs, but the president’s actions have exposed that idea for the fabrication it is.

In one of the most consequential decisions of his second term, Trump last week retreated from his signature tariff policy by announcing cuts on import taxes on hundreds of products coming into the U.S.

Responding to consumer discontent over rising inflation, he scrapped U.S. tariffs on beef, coffee, tropical fruits and a broad swath of other commodities.

And on Thursday, he went further, signing an executive order to remove a 40% tariff on Brazilian food and drinks products, including beef and coffee.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said this is just the beginning. “The president’s going to focus on the small things that touch the Americans’ pocketbook, and he’s going to bring them all down” by Christmas, Lutnick told Fox News.

Tiny glimmers

This reversal has prompted slight glimmers of hope that Canadians might see some relief in the trade assault from Trump that is destroying this country’s economy.

For instance, Dalhousie University agri-food expert Sylvain Charlebois said that, because the U.S. and Canadian food sectors are so deeply integrated, consumers may gradually begin to see price reductions in some grocery products as a result of Trump’s tariff reversal.

“Canadians in the importing and processing sectors will … benefit,” he wrote in a commentary. “Many do not realize just how deeply our supply chain relies on U.S. ports and wholesalers for essential ingredients such as coffee beans, cocoa, tropical fruits, juice concentrates, and spices.

“When the United States lowers tariffs on these products, wholesale prices drop–and Canadian companies that source through U.S. distribution hubs instantly face lower input costs,” he said. “Roasters, chocolatiers, bakeries, beverage processors, food manufacturers, and restaurant chains all stand to enjoy some relief in their margins.”

In a wider scope, there are hints that the White House’s recent tariff changes might signal a somewhat more strategic approach to protectionism as opposed to the scattergun trade impediments Trump has prioritized since being re-elected.

In an executive order published last month, President Donald Trump gave the U.S. Department of Commerce discretion to lower tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico by up to 50 per cent under certain circumstances, the Globe and Mail reported.

But to qualify for the exemption, a steel or aluminum company must be expanding its production footprint in the United States, and the metal must be used in U.S. auto manufacturing, the Globe said.

This falls far very short of the reduction in tariffs on these key metal exports that Ottawa has been trying to negotiate with U.S. officials for months, but it might be a further indication of shifting attitudes toward tariffs in the Trump administration.

However, and this a big however, the chances of a breakthrough in discussions of possible U.S. tariff cuts on key Canadian sectors like steel, aluminum and lumber appear to be completely up in the air.

Underestimating Trump’s fury

Listening to U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, it appears we may not have fully grasped how furious Trump is about Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s TV ads quoting Republican icon Ronald Reagan on how bad tariffs are for average Americans.

“You do not come into America and start running political ads, government-funded political ads, and expect that there will be no consequences or reaction from the United States of America and the Trump administration,” Hoekstra said at the recent National Manufacturing Conference.

Trump suspended trade talks with Ottawa over the ads, which ran on U.S. TV channels during some World Series games in late October. Without meaning to ascribe undue impact to Ford’s ads, it’s notable that Trump started reducing tariffs in response to consumer complaints a few weeks after the Ontario government’s hard-hitting televised appeal to the American public.

The ads marked a turning point in Canada’s exhaustive efforts over eight months to convince the Trump administration to take a more reasonable approach to trade. Carney said that, before the ads put talks in limbo, the two sides were close to a deal to lower sectoral tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.

But that phase of Carney’s dealings with Trump appears to be over. The prime minister said his day-to-day contact with Trump via texts has stopped. And the federal government has made it clear it is moving on with its effort to reinvigorate the Canadian economy and diversify trade beyond the U.S.

“We’re going to get on with building the Canadian economy that’s more resilient, that’s more diversified, do deals with new trading partners, with long-standing trading partners in parts of the world where we can expand opportunities for Canadian businesses and Canadian workers,” Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc explained.

Carney has said he’s willing to resume talks with the U.S. president but nothing appears to be in the works. Hoekstra said negotiations between the two countries would eventually restart but that it was “not going to be easy.”

The focus has now shifted to the upcoming review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement. This is the make-or-break event for Canada in as much as we have so far been able to largely hang on to duty-free access to the U.S. market despite Trump’s confrontation with most of the world’s trading nations.

For what it’s worth, the administration is already feeling pressure to preserve CUSMA from an important source. The U.S. business community, which has been mostly timid in expressing objections to Trump’s damaging tariff campaign, has used consultations in advance of the CUSMA review to launch an urgent call not to dismantle North American free trade.

For instance, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce submitted a statement to the U.S. Trade Representative’s consultations stressing that the agreement “has provided substantial benefits to American workers, farmers, ranchers and companies across the breadth of the U.S. economy.” The Chamber argued that it would be detrimental to U.S. competitiveness to unwind the long-established integration of continental commerce.

With bilateral talks having collapsed in the wake of Trump’s anger at Canada and the Administration backing away from some tariffs in the face of widespread pressure at home, the elements that have shaped the trade conflict between Ottawa and Washington since last winter are rapidly changing. But the next chapter in this crucial saga appears as uncertain, or perhaps moreso, than ever.