The Orange God King punches himself in the mouth
‘President Trump, on the other hand, is suffering steadily worsening political and economic pain that he did not expect and for which he did not prepare the American public,’ writes Ken Polk. / WHITE HOUSE PHOTO
It is emblematic of the comprehensive failure to date of President Donald Trump’s attempts to restrain Iran’s nuclear weapons program that now, eight weeks into Operation Epic Fury/Project Freedom, clearing the Strait of Hormuz seems to be the main objective of his policy.
The Orange God King, as the President is referred to by anti-Trumpers, initially justified the attack on Iran with varying objectives, from encouraging the overthrow of Iran’s Islamic government, to capturing the country's supply of enriched uranium, to deterring Iran's military capacity to threaten its regional neighbours.
Yet keeping the Strait of Hormuz open — that geographically thin, extremely vulnerable pipeline for 20% of the world's oil consumption — appeared nowhere among the Trump administration's objectives.
Fighting the wrong war
True enough, the American military has unleashed punishing military damage on Iran. Superb intelligence and the latest precision-guided munitions have enabled the US and its ally Israel to target and kill or wound senior regime members, to annihilate its air force, to severely degrade its navy, and to eliminate the country's ballistic missile infrastructure.
Yet these spectacular successes seem irrelevant. Through four wars in the region, beginning with the first Gulf War in 1991, the overwhelming military superiority of the United States against a series of isolated, ill-trained, poorly supplied, and technologically antiquated (if not primitive) opponents is no longer news; it is taken for granted.
What has been in the news is the Iranian regime's sheer resilience. Still more surprising was the ease with which it effectively closed the Strait and the apparent lack of American preparedness to deal with, or even now to suppress, such an obvious and frequently employed Iranian tactic.
Surely the American military would remember the “Tanker War” that took place during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. And since 2023, Iran has been steadily increasing its harassment of traffic in the Strait in parallel with American/Israel attacks on its regional proxies. So the threat could hardly have been inconceivable. Rather, it seems to have simply been ignored
As a result, the regime, far from collapsing, remains in firm control. And what began as a one-sided military assault on Iran has, instead, become a one-sided Iranian assault on the American economy, with the rest of the global economy just collateral damage. True, Iran's economy is also suffering, but it has been under siege for decades and seems to have developed coping mechanisms.
President Trump, on the other hand, is suffering steadily worsening political and economic pain that he did not expect and for which he did not prepare the American public. To the point that his approval ratings in the face of Iranian defiance and rising gas prices have hit an all-time record low, even among Republicans. And the November midterm elections currently portend a Republican loss of the House of Representatives and perhaps even the Senate.
Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth
How to explain the fact that Operation Epic Fury has so far been such an “epic fail?”
Well, perhaps the President and his senior advisor thought the country was immune to price shocks because the U.S. gets none of its imported oil through the Strait. That certainly resonates with Trump’s foundational “America First” message.
But that seems fanciful even for Trump, since any of the administration's economic advisors — even those who remain oddly blind to the possibility that tariffs could harm the US economy — would have known that oil is priced globally, not locally.
Even though the U.S. is the world's largest oil producer, it is also the world’s largest oil consumer, so it still imports about 6-7 million barrels of oil a day, about one-third of its daily consumption. Global oil price shocks caused by the conflict with Iran have thus rippled through the American economy, as they do in all economies, in the form of higher gas, diesel, and jet fuel prices, and, in turn, higher overall transportation costs, which will lead to higher prices for everything.
Assuming these basic facts of world oil pricing have penetrated the administration's thinking, the only logical alternative is that the Americans believed they could accomplish their mission quickly, so quickly that any initial oil shock would have passed before it could gain sustained economic momentum.
But as that noted military strategist Mike Tyson once said: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Iran’s punch was its swift closure of the Strait and its capacity to launch strikes against its Gulf neighbors, even in the face of Trump's hurriedly assembled blockade.
Trump’s reverse Midas touch on Iran
Judging by the leaks and counter leaks from the U.S. and Iran on the progress of Pakistani-mediated talks to end the war, the structure of an agreement to end the hostilities includes: reopening and securing the Strait, relief for Iran from U.S. sanctions, and as yet unspecified limits on Iran's nuclear program.
Which brings us to the most politically galling predicament that Trump is now in. Because the agreement currently being discussed sounds very much like the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action against Iran’s nuclear program achieved in 2015 by former President Barack Obama, an agreement secured without war or high gas prices.
The agreement laid out specific restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in return for easing American economic sanctions. President Trump withdrew from it in 2018 because he said that it was not tough enough on Iran. Iran responded to this by accelerating its program.
At this point, the practical effect of Operation Epic Fury seems to be that Trump is fighting his way back to a form of agreement he rejected six years ago, the securing of which could see him considerably diminished politically, and the U.S. economy, not to mention the rest of the world, burdened with a sharp inflationary spike.
Talk about punching yourself in the mouth.
