A sharp rise in concern over climate change is reshaping Canada’s political conversation, according to a new survey from Abacus Data. But while a growing number of Canadians now rank climate among their top concerns, cost-of-living pressures still take precedence when voters enter the ballot box.

The national survey, conducted by Abacus Data from June 26 to July 2, found climate anxiety is increasingly fueled by relentless and visible extreme weather — including Canada’s second-worst wildfire season on record and recent flash flooding in Texas that killed more than 100 people and caused billions in damages.

In light of these developments, political leaders need to present practical, economically grounded climate plans or risk losing public credibility, said David Coletto, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data.

“Leaders who cannot articulate how they will protect households from fires, floods, and spiralling insurance costs risk sounding out of touch,” Coletto said. “Climate may not yet decide elections on its own, but it is fast becoming a credibility filter through which broader economic and leadership claims are judged.”

Psychologically numb

Despite the rise in concern, no federal party has secured clear leadership on the climate file. The survey suggests an opportunity for any party — or new political voice — willing to shift climate from a secondary concern to a defining issue.

“Neither the Carney Liberals nor the Poilievre Conservatives have secured clear ownership of the climate file,” Coletto noted. “Both are still perceived as juggling emissions goals with affordability promises.”

With the NDP entering a leadership race and the Greens struggling for visibility, the report highlights a political opening for a third voice. That voice, according to Abacus, would need to offer “ambitious but economically grounded solutions — industrial-policy carrots over consumer-facing sticks.”

Coletto cautions that if climate events like smoke advisories, heat domes, and flood alerts become normalized, Canadians may grow psychologically numb to the increasing danger.

“Avoiding public numbness remains a strategic imperative,” he said. “The antidote is to keep the narrative personal and local — linking carbon policy to the cost of cooling an apartment during a week-long heat emergency or the premium hike after a basement flood.”

That approach, Abacus argues, ties climate to the dominant cost-of-living narrative and helps prevent the issue from slipping into abstraction or “issue fatigue.”