Nit pickers be damned, Carney’s 2025 a year for the ages
‘The end-of-the-year nitpicking being heard about Carney’s performance is astonishing in the context of a political resurrection for the ages; a comeback that even now is worthy of Canadian political legend,’ writes Ken Polk. / TWITTER PHOTO
It is indicative of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s 2025 that a year ago at this time, what seemed impossible then now seems to have been inevitable. Carney’s transition from billion-dollar asset manager to Prime Minister has a miraculous quality that has vanished into the always short political memory hole.
Indeed, it is quite common to hear “political pros” opining sagely that Carney’s lack of experience is showing, even as he remade his party and achieved the greatest comeback in Canadian political history.
Almost exactly a year ago today, Chrystia Freeland launched a resignation torpedo into the hull of the good ship Justin Trudeau, which was already riding very low in the water. This ended the former prime minister’s curious ambition to lead the Liberal Party to electoral oblivion.
Conservative Leader Pierre Polievre’s lead in the polls was so huge and stable that even if he had not committed the political sin of prematurely measuring the proverbial drapes for the Prime Minister’s Office, he could be forgiven for having browsed fabric swatches.
Carney picked the opposition’s pockets
President Donald Trump had launched his tariff trade war before Carney took office, but the new prime minister took ownership of the issue like a seasoned pro, riding a wave of Canadian patriotic nationalism to just shy of a majority.
He then proceeded to steal a large slice of Poilievre’s election platform, which included lower taxes, smaller government, radically streamlined approval processes for mines, oil and natural gas pipelines, and home building. For good measure, his economic nationalism and foreign policy distance from the United States on Ukraine and the Middle East, for example, have appropriated traditional NDP real estate.
Ontario MP Michael Ma pictured with Prime Minister Mark Carney after crossing the floor from the Conservative Party to the Liberals. / CPAC SCREENSHOT
This December, Poilievre looks wobbly. The defection this week of MP Michael Ma to the Liberals — the second since November — will have set Poilievre's teeth on edge as the countdown to the Conservative leadership review just a month from now. He will no doubt win, but he cannot take a big score for granted. Indeed, the latest Angus Reid poll suggests that doubts about his leadership style and the shocking election loss have softened his support.
Poilievre also remains at odds with Ontario Premier Doug Ford, the most powerful conservative politician in the country, and whose operatives Poilievre may suspect are behind the MP defections and waiting to pounce in Calgary.
For their part, the NDP is in tatters and broke, amid a leadership race that seems to be attracting attention almost exclusively from the candidates’ friends and families.
Liberal makeover as the party of the economy
Pure politics aside, Carney has accomplished a remarkable makeover of the Liberal Party, shifting it from appearing, unfairly or not, as being the party of identity politics and environmental radicalism to being the party of the economy. Not bad for a political rookie.
The prime minister can also take comfort from the continued resiliency of Canadians in the face of Trumpian trade uncertainty. GDP growth showed a surprising 2.6% jump in December. The unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in November from a mid-year high of 7.1%. Inflation has been wrestled under control, which in turn has seen interest rates on mortgages and consumer debt fall significantly. Of course, none of this has had anything to do with Prime Minister Carney. But just as Trudeau took the blame for a poor economy, Carney will get the credit for this good news.
It is true that the prime minister’s economic policy is very much a work in progress. There could be a significant delay before Canadians see tangible economic benefits from the Building Canada Act, the creation of the Major Projects Office, and the launch of Build Canada Homes. Budget 2025 featured the most aggressive action to address Canada's lagging productivity growth in recent memory, but this too will take time to yield results. But taken together, these pillars of Carney’s economic agenda have sent a welcome signal to investors that Canada is open for business again.
Even Trump is on the back foot
As befits a politician on a hot streak, Carney can also savour, at least for now, the fact that President Trump's tariff-driven economic agenda is highly unpopular. A poll this week showed that almost 70% of Americans disapprove of his handling of the economy. In many ways, Trump appears to be as out of touch with voters’ concerns about the cost of living as Trudeau was with Canadians a year ago, with tariffs seen as a cause of higher prices.
Whether this will prompt the president to sound a retreat on tariffs remains to be seen. But it does argue that Carney does not need to make a hasty deal. Even so, it was the voters' belief that Carney was better qualified than Poilievre to secure a good deal with the mercurial president, which powered his election victory. The prime minister cannot let this issue linger too long into 2026.
As I said, memories are short in politics. And self-appointed political experts like me grow like clover in Ottawa. The end-of-the-year nitpicking being heard about Carney’s performance is astonishing in the context of a political resurrection for the ages; a comeback that even now is worthy of Canadian political legend.
Let's put it another way: Imagine what he will accomplish once he has experience!
