Carney’s Big Pivot: ‘Rhetoric is cheap. Credit is costlier’

TWITTER PHOTO

Mark Carney is taking office as Canada’s 24th prime minister at a moment of rare alignment: the challenges are urgent, the business community is engaged and the policy debates are underway. Corporate leaders are watching to see if the new government can match ambition with clarity, execution and discipline.

“Now is the time for ambition to be bold, to meet this crisis with an overwhelming positive force that is a united Canada. It's time to build,” he said during a press conference yesterday. “My government is getting to work to build. Build big, bold and build now.”

But the prime minister’s rhetoric lands in a real-world context shaped by investor anxiety, supply chain shocks and geopolitical complexity. Business leaders and policy thinkers have already laid down a blueprint for what must come next — and they’re looking for the new government to get to work.

Warning bells 

The Business Council of Canada’s Goldy Hyder, in a letter sent to Carney shortly after the election, welcomed the prime minister's win but stressed that “all Canadians are depending on you and your government to meet the moment with bold, ambitious, decisive action.” He made clear that the business community is ready to partner, but that success depends on “trust, policy clarity, and shared purpose.”

Hyder laid out four critical imperatives: stabilize Canada’s trade relationship with the U.S. through the existing CUSMA framework rather than risking a bilateral deal; accelerate infrastructure and industrial investment to reignite growth; diversify markets and supply chains; and commit to a disciplined fiscal framework that postpones broad tax cuts until stability is restored.

Shenfeld: fiscal pressures, political hurdles 

With the Liberals forming a minority government, economists warn of rising fiscal pressures and political hurdles. “Deficits are likely to somewhat exceed what the Liberals suggested during the campaign, while still tracking miles below U.S. federal deficits as a share of GDP,” CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld told CP. He noted that support from the NDP or Bloc could require new spending “towards those parties’ priorities, including health care for the NDP, and items of importance for the Bloc” such as health care, other transfers and support for the metals sector. 

Liberal proposals that could affect the fiscal balance include “dropping the consumer carbon tax while retaining a reformed version for large industrial emitters,” and “eliminating GST on homes under $1 million for first-time purchasers,” Shenfield noted. Additionally, “cutting the tax rate by one percentage point for those in the lowest federal income tax bracket” will also restrict the government’s income.

TD chief economist Beata Caranci also told CP the Liberal platform aims to “pivot Canada towards domestic economic resilience,” adding, “This suggests a more active role for government in both funding and building than in the past.” 

She asked, however, how the priorities would get implemented in a minority government. “Who will partner with the new Liberal government to pass legislation?” she said. “Now the rubber hits the road on collaboration and negotiations, with Liberals caught between the demands of the U.S. administration and those of domestic politics.”

Clamouring to de-risk

RBC senior vice president John Stackhouse asked: “Do we need to win back investor confidence?” His answer was unequivocal: “Yes. Too many of these conversations assume Canada is amazing in the world’s eyes. Rhetoric is cheap. Credit is costlier.”

John Stackhouse, senior vice president at RBC and a longtime observer of Canadian public policy, offered a sobering assessment in his reflections given at the Public Policy Forum’s recent 2025 Growth Summit, held April 24.

The theme was what Stackhouse called the “Big Pivot” — the urgent need to make Canada’s economy more independent and resilient. Stackhouse asked: “Do we need to win back investor confidence?” His answer was unequivocal: “Yes. Too many of these conversations assume Canada is amazing in the world’s eyes. Rhetoric is cheap. Credit is costlier.”

Stackhouse questioned whether governments can play a more active role in the economy without damaging it, especially as the federal government moves toward greater involvement in housing, energy and infrastructure: “We have decades of mixed results but will likely give state corporations one more try, whether it’s to build houses or expand pipelines.”

He also noted how risk-averse Canada has become, suggesting a cultural shift may be needed to meet this moment: “No country clamours to ‘de-risk’ like this one, as if the key role of government is to bear the risks of the private sector and of individuals.”

On Indigenous partnerships — a key theme of Carney’s industrial strategy — Stackhouse pointed to the potential for progress through clarity and consistency: “There may never be a formula for consultation and the resulting consent — but we may be able to establish norms that will be widely accepted. Watchwords: ‘speed and certainty.’”

Carney may be new to elected office, but the issues he now faces are anything but. His sweeping vision — of a modern industrial strategy, an economic decoupling from the U.S., and a national infrastructure build-out — will demand levels of intergovernmental collaboration and public-private coordination that few Canadian governments have ever achieved.

The election may have given Carney a mandate. But he can’t govern by slogans alone. As Stackhouse reminds us: “The next few years will be unlike any few years we’ve seen.”

You might also like

Next
Next

Carney’s political inexperience is his greatest asset